08.00 Registration and breakfast
08.30 Welcome remarks
08.35 What lies in store for the LPG market in 2025?
- Emma Lamb,
Lead Consultant, NGLStrategy
The year 2024 presented significant volatility in the propane and butane markets, driven by external factors including weather fluctuations, geopolitical instability, and global economic trends.
While petrochemical capacity expansion continues in the East, particularly in China, subdued demand growth for olefin and polyolefin products has exerted downward pressure on Far Eastern LPG prices.
Meanwhile, the US has maintained robust NGL production with elevated inventory levels, but export growth has been constrained by terminal capacity. Though additional terminal capacity is anticipated in the upcoming years, its potential market impact remains a key question.
In the Middle East, new production projects are on the horizon but are not expected to come online before 2026. Once only, the additional LPG volume could be substantial.
This session will delve into the critical factors shaping the LPG market in 2025 and beyond, including:
- The implications of expanded US terminal capacity
- Additional production expectations in the Middle East and competition with US for supplying Asian markets
- Trends in global demand and the likelihood for industries to absorb the additional supply
- Global petrochemical demand forecasts and margin trends
- VLGC supply and demand dynamics
- A comprehensive analysis of the supply chain from the US to the Far East
09.15 Networking & Coffee
09.35 Market disruptors & scenarios
- Michael Panas,
Managing Consultant, NGLStrategy
An increasing number of market sensitivities have added complexity to the LPG market. As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, this trend shows no signs of abating. Therefore, it is important to understand what different scenarios could mean for the global market. The US-China trade balance is precarious and can be influenced by a number of factors. This presentation will explore a number of these factors, providing attendees with an understanding of the limitations for the market. Some scenarios which may be explored:
- What influence will a greater increase in propylene demand have on Chinese propane demand?
- PDH capacity growth continues in 2025 in China – how much propane will this require and what would be the market/economic consequences if all these plants come online and run?
- What would be the effect of changing oil and natural gas production and economics in the US on LPG production? How will NGL production be affected by the changing dynamics?
- How US exports and inventory levels will be affected by export terminal capacity constraints, additions and domestic supply/demand dynamics?
- What will be the role of Middle East exports in the short and long term? Could they impact US NGL production growth over the next five years? What would be the effect on upcoming US terminal capacity?
- How could the US-Far East arbs be influenced by market economics and how could this affect VLGC freight rates and US Mont Belvieu price?
- In the last 12-16 months, we witnessed a large influx of Very Large Liquid Carriers in the orderbook. Will the new VLECs and VLACs be utilized in ethane and ammonia trades in the medium-term or they will be competing in the LPG seaborne trade market adding pressure to the VLGC sector?
- What are the latest developments in the global ethane markets? How can these influence the LPG export market and propylene demand in Asia?
- How could ethylene and ammonia markets influence the LPG markets in the coming years?
10.15 Q&A
10.30 Networking & Coffee
11.30 End of event
Date & Time
Thursday, 10th April 2025
Registration from 8am
Breakfast provided with networking coffee and presentations