NGLStrategy LPG Market Seminar, London | November 2025

London 2025 Breakfast Seminar: Event Round Up

By Dr Emma Lamb, Lead Consultant, NGLS

At the end of November, key LPG market players gathered in London for our annual breakfast seminar to hear what NGL Strategy views as the key focal points for the propane and butane market in 2026.

The event also provided valuable time for colleagues from across the industry to reconnect and exchange perspectives.

A sharper picture of 2026

I opened the session with an outlook for the base case scenario for 2026, drawing on the fundamentals we’ve been watching closely across global LPG markets. Three key points were:

• The potential for significant increase in supply from Middle East alongside a continued robust growth in NGL production in the US.
• The need for other outlets of LPG if the projected expansion in seaborne exports come to fruition.
• A longer freight balance in 2026, driven by a new wave of VLGC and VLAC deliveries due throughout the year.

We also revisited several predictions shared at our 2024 breakfast event to explore where the market aligned. Sensitivities and impact on pricing/freight were also discussed, and what’s in store for the year ahead and potential volatility/changes from 2025.

What happens next? Disruptors, scenarios and market sentiment

The second part of the event focussed on LPG market disruptors and scenarios. With a number of uncertainties in the oil and gas markets, Michael Panas our Managing Consultant used an interactive platform to invite the audience to vote anonymously on a series of forward-looking questions:

• Who will be the more influential exporter in 2026, the US or the Middle East?
• Which demand factor will be the most sensitive driver in 2026?
• Is the VLGC market projected to be long, short, or balanced in 2026?
• Which factor is projected to have the strongest impact on LPG global pricing in 2026?

The real value came not just from the votes, but from the debate that followed. Michael paired the results with NGL Strategy’s quantitative modelling, laying out plausible paths for 2026 under different market conditions.

The analysis presented during the session sparked thoughtful and constructive discussions, and the final conversations helped explore how these themes may develop over the year ahead.

We’ve already begun reviewing the feedback from attendees received so far. Here are a few highlights:

“Well attended and conducive to networking.”

“I particularly liked the anonymous interactive surveys and the revisit of last year’s forecasts  the ‘what changed?’ scenarios.”

Your scoring of the event was incredibly encouraging, with early responses giving overall ratings of 9/10 and 10/10, and full marks for the speakers, venue and networking opportunities.

Several of you also expressed interest in regular updates from us, which we are exploring, and many requested a sample of our Weekly LPG Report, which we are delighted to provide.

Click here to request a sample of our Weekly Report

To everyone who joined us in London, thank you for making the morning so energising. Your questions and insights help shape the analysis we bring to the market, and they ensure our work stays grounded in the realities that matter most to you.

We look forward to continuing the conversation throughout 2026,  in our reports, our client briefings, and of course, at next year’s seminar which will be in Houston in April. Details coming soon!

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