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Ethane

Navigating US-China ethane licensing challenges – Week 26 2025

Jun 30, 2025

After the announcement in May that, effective 23 May 2025, U.S. exporters would need a license to ship ethane to China, the U.S. Department of Commerce notified exporters Enterprise Products and Energy Transfer last week that they may load ethane onto vessels bound for China but cannot discharge the cargo there without authorization. As of Friday, 27 June, six VLECs are waiting to load in the U.S. Gulf, five of which previously called in China. Additionally, six ballasting VLECs are currently heading toward the Panama Canal [...]

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Middle East

Middle East unrest deepens: Implications beyond Iranian supply disruptions – Week 25 2025

Jun 23, 2025

What would be the consequences of a Strait of Hormuz closure for LPG and other Middle Eastern exporters? In this week’s report, NGLStrategy analyzes the potential impact on two of the region’s major exporters: Saudi Arabia & Qatar [...]

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Middle East

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Unrest in the Middle East sparks market uncertainty – Week 24 2025

Jun 16, 2025

Although the ultimate impact of recent developments in the Middle East remains uncertain, NGLStrategy evaluates the potential ramifications for the LPG market should tensions persist or escalate. Several scenarios could unfold, including a complete loss of Iranian supply, elevated crude oil prices, and disruptions to shipping routes and market flows. These scenarios do not yet factor in the potential for broader escalation involving other regional or global actors [...]

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Production

How much can US NGL production be affected by associated vs non-associated gas output? – Week 23 2025

Jun 09, 2025

Ongoing market uncertainty over global crude oil versus natural gas demand is creating complex dynamics for U.S. NGL production, as the source of natural gas plays a crucial role in determining NGL output levels. A decline in crude oil production would result in reduced associated gas volumes, which would likely be offset by increased non-associated gas production—yet the two are not equivalent in terms of NGL yield [...]

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Ethane

Another blow to US-China trade announced – Week 22 2025

Jun 02, 2025

Already this year, we have seen a turbulent market in terms of market adjustments to geopolitical announcements. Last week, the volatility continued with the US government announcing further restrictions on companies exporting products to China. It was announced that companies could be ordered to stop shipping good to China without a license with licenses revoked for some companies already. Included in this discussion is ethane and butane as they are seen to pose a risk for military end-use [...]

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Production

Implications of rising OPEC+ output on LPG export market – Week 21 2025

May 26, 2025

With the prospect of higher crude oil production from OPEC+ in July—building on elevated levels already seen in May and June 2025 compared to previous commitments—NGLStrategy examines the potential implications for the global LPG market [...]

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China

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Overview of the impact of 10% import tariffs for US to China volume – Week 20 2025

May 19, 2025

Further tariff announcements last week between the US and China provided some optimism in the LPG market. A 90-day reduction in tariffs was agreed reducing the import tariff for LPG from 125% to 10% for volume from the US to China [...]

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China

The ever‑evolving effects of the US/China trade affair – Week 19 2025

May 12, 2025

The announcement flow of U.S.–China trade updates continues to be intense. As the market has been diligently working to solve the U.S.‑to‑China propane‑exports reshuffling puzzle, a 90‑day truce—effective this week—was announced, cutting tariffs by 115% on both sides and setting China’s propane‑import duty at 10% [...]

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Petrochemicals

A closer look at Chinese petrochemical imports – Week 18 2025

May 05, 2025

Analysis of LPG imports into major terminal hubs in China which are linked to petrochemical facilities shows that despite reliance on US volume to meet the demand, there is still a significant volume imported from other regions such as the Middle East [...]

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Shipping

USTR fees on Chinese vessels: Limited LPG market impact – Week 17 2025

Apr 28, 2025

Earlier this year, the US government initially proposed potential levies of up to $1.5 million per voyage on Chinese-related vessels, which would have translated into an incremental cost of approximately $30/t in a VLGC market where trip rates from the US to the Far East hover around $100/t, creating a substantial cost hurdle. However, the mid-April announcement was considerably less stringent, and the projected impact on LPG markets is now expected to be minimal [...]

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Tariffs

Uncertainty remains the only constant – Week 15 2025

Apr 14, 2025

Last week, the US president announced a set of tariffs on imports into the US from a range of countries. The levies varied per country, but the main consideration for the LPG market was the tariff with China. In retaliation China imposed a 34% tariff on volume imported from the US to China. As the week went on, further announcements were made raising tariffs to 84% before a final increase to 125% by the end of the week [...]

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Tariffs

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Tariffs bring a whole new complexity to the market – Week 14 2025

Apr 07, 2025

Last week, President Trump announced tariffs for a range of countries importing certain products into the US including China. It is unclear the full extent of such announcements and the longevity of the tariffs, but NGLS discusses a range of scenarios to consider as a consequence, and the impact on the supply chain economics. [...]

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