Weekly Market Features

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Overview

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2024: A roundup of the market – Week 50 2024

Dec 16, 2024

A roundup of the LPG market throughout 2024 with a look at overall seaborne LPG trade balance and supply chain economics [...]

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Black Swan

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2025: A “bevy of Black Swans” waiting to happen – Week 49 2024

Dec 09, 2024

Each year, market outlooks are shaped by prevailing expectations at the time forecasts are finalized. Inevitably, major global shifts can dramatically alter these assumptions, reshaping the foundation of projections and forcing market participants to adjust their strategies. As we approach 2025, the year presents heightened "Black Swan" risks compared to previous periods. This looking ahead summary delves into those potential disruptors and their implications. [...]

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Propylene

The influence of propylene growth rate changes on PDH demand in China – Week 48 2024

Dec 02, 2024

Propylene demand in China grew at 9% in 2023 but has since seen a slowdown in 2024 to under 7%. NGLStrategy expects this to fall further in 2025 to under 6% but will be sensitive to overall economic recovery in China as well as the level of incentives and stimulus provided within the country. Global political relationships such as US-China tariffs will also play a role.[...]

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Tariffs

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US-China theoretical propane tariff price impact – Week 46 2024

Nov 18, 2024

The recent US elections have reignited concerns about a potential escalation in US-China relations, possibly leading to increased economic protectionism and tariffs [...]

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Tariffs

US-Chinese tariffs are making headlines again; is there enough non-US propane to meet Chinese demand? – Week 45 2024

Nov 11, 2024

Is There Enough Volume in the East to Replace US Exports to China? According to NGLStrategy’s latest forecast without any potential impact of US-Chinese tariffs, Chinese propane imports are expected to reach 33.6 mm t in 2025. Of this volume, our forecast would include 20.7 mm t to be imported from N. America (US and Canada) [...]

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Winter

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Will US winter retail demand expectations support lower propane inventory levels? – Week 44 2024

Nov 04, 2024

One of the key unpredictable factors in the U.S. supply/demand balance is the residential/commercial propane consumption, as it heavily depends on weather patterns and seasonality [...]

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Retail

What will be the impact of seasonal winter demand on the LPG market? – Week 43 2024

Oct 28, 2024

Even though it is still October, the anticipation of winter retail demand's impact on the LPG market is already being considered. The US and the Far East are the two regions expected to have the greatest influence on the seaborne trade market [...]

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India

Stronger Indian imports in 2024 could continue with additional terminal capacity – Week 42 2024

Oct 21, 2024

Indian imports have surpassed NGLStrategy’s expectations for 2024 with quarterly LPG imports in Q3 2024 expected to be 5.5 mm t – 1 mm t higher than seen in Q3 2023. To support the higher imports, there has been a number of new terminal projects added, with additional capacity still expected going forward [...]

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Middle East

What impact will the new gas projects in the Middle East have on LPG exports? – Week 41 2024

Oct 14, 2024

We are on the cusp of a number of new gas projects starting up in the Middle East over the next few years. Despite some delays to the timing of new production, by 2030, the significant volume of natural gas and hence LPG is forecast to have a substantial impact on Eastern supply [...]

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Terminals

What are the limitations of USGC LPG export terminal capacity in 2025? – Week 40 2024

Oct 07, 2024

A key focus for the global LPG market in 2025 will be the limitations on USGC export terminal capacity and volume, as current infrastructure reached capacity in Q3-24. The crucial question is how much more LPG volume can be exported based on current and projected capacity to relieve pressure on the domestic U.S. NGL markets, especially as production continues to grow, demand remains relatively flat, and inventories approach record highs [...]

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Saudi Arabia

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LPG production from Saudi Arabia to rise in 2025 – Week 39 2024

Sep 30, 2024

Some headlines last week mentioned Saudi Arabia could be looking at raising crude oil production over the next 6 months, dropping the $100 crude oil price target, looking at higher market share [...]

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Tariffs

2025 Middle East export forecast insufficient to meet growing propane demand in China – Week 38 2024

Sep 23, 2024

With the upcoming US election, the last time we saw one of the candidates in the presidential role, there were tariffs in place which added additional costs onto the price of importing LPG from the US to China. As a consequence, volume directly from the US to China decreased to almost zero with higher volume from the Middle East and other regions [...]

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