08.00 Registration and breakfast
08.30 Welcome remarks
- Michael Panas,
Managing Consultant, NGLStrategy
08.35 What lies in store for the LPG market in 2024?
- Emma Lamb,
Lead Consultant, NGLStrategy
Volatility remains a key topic for the LPG market in 2024. Petrochemical capacity continues to be added in the East, primarily in China. However, demand growth for olefin/polyolefin products is forecast to remain subdued, weighing on Far Eastern LPG prices.
Supply growth from the Middle East is forecast to remain under pressure due to OPEC+ production cuts. Therefore, additional demand growth may need to rely on Western supplies, but will global spreads and arbitrage be sufficient to move increasing volumes from the US to the East?This presentation aims to provide an overview of the propane and butane market in 2024. Topics explored include supply/demand, seaborne trade and petrochemicals with an emphasis on the impact of the global market on the US.
09.05 The Complexity of Global LPG Pricing and Shipping Dynamics
- Michael Panas,
Managing Consultant, NGLStrategy
Global LPG price structures are maturing following the rapid changes in supply/demand patterns, geopolitical instability, trading dynamics and environmental pressures. The key question is how all those factors come together and ultimately influence global prices and arbs.
This presentation aims to unravel the global LPG price dynamics, examine the significance of the US FOB and domestic prices and how they impact or are affected by the international dynamics. It will also explore the sensitivities of the shipping markets and their forthcoming challenges, including environmental and logistical constraint factors, and put together the puzzle of the price structure complexities.
09.35 Networking & Coffee
10.00 A Brief Introduction to Ethane and Ammonia Global Trade
- Michael Panas,
Managing Consultant, NGLStrategy
Both ethane and ammonia have seen significant developments over the last year. In this topic NGLS will aim to provide an outline of the key trends and insights into the long-term outlook through the lenses of the short-term developments.
10.15 Market Scenarios
- Michael Panas,
Managing Consultant, NGLStrategy
- Emma Lamb,
Lead Consultant, NGLStrategy
An increasing number of market sensitivities have added complexity to the LPG market in 2023. For 2024 this is expected to continue, and therefore it is important to understand what different scenarios could mean for the global market, particularly the US.
The US-China trade balance is precarious and can be influenced by a number of factors. This presentation will explore a number of these factors, providing attendees with an understanding of limitations for the market.
Some scenarios which will be explored:
➢ What influence will a greater increase in propylene demand have on Chinese propane demand?
➢ A large increase in PDH capacity is expected in China – how much propane will this require and what would be the market/economic consequences if all these plants come online and run?
➢ What would be the effect of changing oil and natural gas economics in the US on LPG production? How will NGL production be affected by the changing dynamics?
➢ What will be the role in the short-term of the Middle East exports? Could they influence competing importing regions for US producers/exporters?
➢ How will varying levels of Panama Canal transits influence freight rates and delivery times of US material to the East?
➢ How could the US-Far East arbs be influenced by market economics and how could this affect VLGC freight rates?
➢ In the last 12 months, we witnessed a large influx of Very Large Liquid Carriers in the orderbook. Will the new VLECs and VLACs be utilized in ethane and ammonia trades in the medium-term or they will be competing in the LPG seaborne trade market adding pressure to the VLGC sector?
10.45 Networking & Coffee
11.30 End of event
Date & Time
Thursday, 18th April 2024
Registration from 8am
Breakfast provided with networking coffee after presentations